On a Labor Day visit to California Academy of Sciences, my family of four almost missed the beautiful 3D Bugs! Show as all the shows were sold out. We checked with the staff member disbursing the tickets for any availability to no avail. Rather than simply give up and walk away, we came back to him no less than 4 times. Finally, at show time he quickly ushered us! What a great show! In hindsight I would have been really disappointed to have not seen it. While we were waiting at a close distance to the theater, two four members families inquired and left when told no tickets are available.
Persistence is critical to success in all walks of life. As President Calvin Coolidge famously states “Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful people with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent. The slogan "press on" has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race”
Friday, September 25, 2009
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Change is an opportunity
Summary: Nothing endures but change (Heraclitus). Change is a constant (Benjamin Disraeli). Companies can embrace Change as an opportunity by driving change than be driven by change.
California Academy of Science has a beautiful 3D video Bugs capturing the life changes from an egg to a caterpillar and then a butterfly eventually preyed upon by a Mantis. Businesses likewise are acquired and merged to scale up. Venture arms incubate firms in related industries to create real options. As in nature where larger animals are fewer in numbers, larger firms are fewer in numbers and entrepreneurs’ best prepare for such an exit in their entry plans. VC and PE firms enter with an exit plan and are flexible to change as events unfold.
Changes come in waves. Like waves, they vary in size. Surfers travel the world to ride the killer waves. The surfers’ skills are tested by catching and riding the challenging waves and ability to execute various maneuvers. The risk of entering the wave too soon is facing a wipeout. Wait too long and lose the feeling of being stoked. Businesses like Netflix capitalize the first mover advantage before the incumbent Blockbuster realize changing customer habits. However, fast followers like Microsoft are also able to cross the chasm and ride the wave due to a better management team or business model. Wireless service providers and insurance firms entering the Indian market now have most likely missed the wave and will be part of the coming industry consolidation phase. Depending on the investing style, some investors like Warren Buffet prefer the predictability of the trough of the wave while others like Jim Clark crave the New New Thing.
Imagine driving in the wild at dusk as a dense fog sets in dropping visibility. Such is the scenario when an industry or economy wide crisis happens. One approach to deal with such an uncertain change is to park at the side of the road and wait for dawn in the hope that the morning heat will burn away the fog. Businesses in the down cycle often take such a cautious approach reducing investment in innovation and marketing to their detriment. On the other hand, companies who have planned ahead drive change and benefit at the expense of others. Hopefully financial services firms are capitalizing the present crisis to retool their business models and develop systems for the future to emerge stronger.
Unbeknownst to the driver, it is at the pinnacle of the icy mountainside that the decline begins and the vehicle begins to descend down the slippery slope. A concerted set of actions can help the vehicle and companies stave off decline and reverse the descent. Can the US auto manufacturers not capitalize on their bankruptcy and federal assistance to energize their employees, suppliers and customers by running a contest to design ‘America’s Car’? It is time to go back to being a start-up again and fight back like an underdog in the true American spirit. Newspapers, book and music publishers can leverage the Internet to customize their products increasing distribution and revenue while reducing costs to reverse their decline. Newspapers can increase pricing, trim losses by reducing the number of pages and frequency and explore online delivery mechanisms. Music companies can enable customers create their custom CD on demand at a higher price, publish their own music and reduce artist search costs by having the crowd vote. Book publishers can adopt on demand printing technology to reduce holding costs while increasing pricing by allowing product customization and support print democratization.
Conclusion: Change is an opportunity. The fashion industry would not have a ‘Fall’ line but will instead have a ‘next week’s’ line. The auto industry would not have a next year model but will instead have a co-designed World Car. The IT industry would not have a multi-year next generation version but will instead have a last week’s Cloud Service.
Companies who are creative and flexible can and will drive change/ innovation in their industry and emerge as industry leaders.
California Academy of Science has a beautiful 3D video Bugs capturing the life changes from an egg to a caterpillar and then a butterfly eventually preyed upon by a Mantis. Businesses likewise are acquired and merged to scale up. Venture arms incubate firms in related industries to create real options. As in nature where larger animals are fewer in numbers, larger firms are fewer in numbers and entrepreneurs’ best prepare for such an exit in their entry plans. VC and PE firms enter with an exit plan and are flexible to change as events unfold.
Changes come in waves. Like waves, they vary in size. Surfers travel the world to ride the killer waves. The surfers’ skills are tested by catching and riding the challenging waves and ability to execute various maneuvers. The risk of entering the wave too soon is facing a wipeout. Wait too long and lose the feeling of being stoked. Businesses like Netflix capitalize the first mover advantage before the incumbent Blockbuster realize changing customer habits. However, fast followers like Microsoft are also able to cross the chasm and ride the wave due to a better management team or business model. Wireless service providers and insurance firms entering the Indian market now have most likely missed the wave and will be part of the coming industry consolidation phase. Depending on the investing style, some investors like Warren Buffet prefer the predictability of the trough of the wave while others like Jim Clark crave the New New Thing.
Imagine driving in the wild at dusk as a dense fog sets in dropping visibility. Such is the scenario when an industry or economy wide crisis happens. One approach to deal with such an uncertain change is to park at the side of the road and wait for dawn in the hope that the morning heat will burn away the fog. Businesses in the down cycle often take such a cautious approach reducing investment in innovation and marketing to their detriment. On the other hand, companies who have planned ahead drive change and benefit at the expense of others. Hopefully financial services firms are capitalizing the present crisis to retool their business models and develop systems for the future to emerge stronger.
Unbeknownst to the driver, it is at the pinnacle of the icy mountainside that the decline begins and the vehicle begins to descend down the slippery slope. A concerted set of actions can help the vehicle and companies stave off decline and reverse the descent. Can the US auto manufacturers not capitalize on their bankruptcy and federal assistance to energize their employees, suppliers and customers by running a contest to design ‘America’s Car’? It is time to go back to being a start-up again and fight back like an underdog in the true American spirit. Newspapers, book and music publishers can leverage the Internet to customize their products increasing distribution and revenue while reducing costs to reverse their decline. Newspapers can increase pricing, trim losses by reducing the number of pages and frequency and explore online delivery mechanisms. Music companies can enable customers create their custom CD on demand at a higher price, publish their own music and reduce artist search costs by having the crowd vote. Book publishers can adopt on demand printing technology to reduce holding costs while increasing pricing by allowing product customization and support print democratization.
Conclusion: Change is an opportunity. The fashion industry would not have a ‘Fall’ line but will instead have a ‘next week’s’ line. The auto industry would not have a next year model but will instead have a co-designed World Car. The IT industry would not have a multi-year next generation version but will instead have a last week’s Cloud Service.
Companies who are creative and flexible can and will drive change/ innovation in their industry and emerge as industry leaders.
Saturday, September 12, 2009
Towards High Richness and Reach Computing
Introduction: Rich v/s Reach is a framework first described by Evans & Wuster in Blown to Bits. The term is used to illustrate a trade-off between providing a Rich experience in terms of Bandwidth, Customization and Interactivity v/s reaching a larger number of people.
A Rich computing experience can be result of superior display or form factor, ease of interactivity, processing speed and a broad applications suite. Reach or mobility is primarily driven by connectivity speed and ability to travel with the device. Devices ranging from the 50” TV to the utilitarian cell phone illustrate the computing rich v/s reach trade-off. We explore each of these factors to propose a device strategy which delivers both richness and reach simultaneously.
Ease of Interactivity: The move away from traditional keyboard contributes to significantly better novice user experience and drives adoption. HP Touch Smart and iPod Multi-Touch technologies dramatically improve how users interact with devices. The Wii Remote and Nunchuck have revolutionized gaming and made it accessible to all ages and abilities. The future interactive model will be supported by a stylish pen which replaces the keyboard in supporting applications based on motion sensors.
Processing speed: Intel with 70% and AMD with 22% market share dominate the CPU market. Intel processors will continue to power high end server performance. Intel Atom processor line competes with ARM in powering mobile devices however lags behind in power consumption. A 200 licensee base, lower power footprint and broad usage in mobile devices gives ARM the edge in powering future mobile devices.
Applications Suite: The over 1700 web-apps provide Apple iPhone and iTouch a very rich user experience. The catalog of 756 games provides Nintendo Wii an incomparable advantage in reaching users of all ages and abilities. The future rich device experience will need to adopt a similar development ecosystem approach and offer a better application base to drive adoption.
Display: Current Form factors constraint the richness of the experience. The 50” Plasma TV has a rich display but limits mobility. The smaller screens on the various mobile devices foster mobility at the expense of display richness. The future display device will be a fashionable video eye wear which provides a large screen monitor display while accommodating prescription lenses and have a low power footprint. The display will scroll with the movement of the eyes or head movement. Accessories will support real and virtual 3D content.
Connectivity: 4G networks which promise to deliver a nominal data rate of 100Mbit/s, 1 Gbit/s which in fixed position and data rate of at least 100 Mbit/s between any two points in the world will be critical to further bolster the reach of the proposed device strategy. 4G networks will support real time audio, high speed data, HDTV video content and mobile TV. Verizon plans to launch with LTE technology in 2010 and Sprint-Nextel as part of Clearwire with WiMAX in 2009.
Typical Scenario
John is on the move wearing a video eye wear and carrying a Bluetooth linked stylish pen. His user session is running on an Intel or AMD powered server farm in a remote data center. Currently the display is redirected to his eye wear. The video connectivity is supported by Verizon’s 4G network. His directory view is organized as a file cabinet. He opens a file and edits it with his pen, picks and drops in rich content and saves a draft as he exits the train. Once in office his session is now displayed on his large screen monitors where he continues his editing. Connectivity is now provided by his high speed LAN circuit.
Summary
A high rich and high reach computing experience can be supported by a 4G network, video eyewear display, a pen for interactivity, Intel or AMD powered server farms and ARM powered eyewear and pen running supporting applications suite.
A Rich computing experience can be result of superior display or form factor, ease of interactivity, processing speed and a broad applications suite. Reach or mobility is primarily driven by connectivity speed and ability to travel with the device. Devices ranging from the 50” TV to the utilitarian cell phone illustrate the computing rich v/s reach trade-off. We explore each of these factors to propose a device strategy which delivers both richness and reach simultaneously.
Ease of Interactivity: The move away from traditional keyboard contributes to significantly better novice user experience and drives adoption. HP Touch Smart and iPod Multi-Touch technologies dramatically improve how users interact with devices. The Wii Remote and Nunchuck have revolutionized gaming and made it accessible to all ages and abilities. The future interactive model will be supported by a stylish pen which replaces the keyboard in supporting applications based on motion sensors.
Processing speed: Intel with 70% and AMD with 22% market share dominate the CPU market. Intel processors will continue to power high end server performance. Intel Atom processor line competes with ARM in powering mobile devices however lags behind in power consumption. A 200 licensee base, lower power footprint and broad usage in mobile devices gives ARM the edge in powering future mobile devices.
Applications Suite: The over 1700 web-apps provide Apple iPhone and iTouch a very rich user experience. The catalog of 756 games provides Nintendo Wii an incomparable advantage in reaching users of all ages and abilities. The future rich device experience will need to adopt a similar development ecosystem approach and offer a better application base to drive adoption.
Display: Current Form factors constraint the richness of the experience. The 50” Plasma TV has a rich display but limits mobility. The smaller screens on the various mobile devices foster mobility at the expense of display richness. The future display device will be a fashionable video eye wear which provides a large screen monitor display while accommodating prescription lenses and have a low power footprint. The display will scroll with the movement of the eyes or head movement. Accessories will support real and virtual 3D content.
Connectivity: 4G networks which promise to deliver a nominal data rate of 100Mbit/s, 1 Gbit/s which in fixed position and data rate of at least 100 Mbit/s between any two points in the world will be critical to further bolster the reach of the proposed device strategy. 4G networks will support real time audio, high speed data, HDTV video content and mobile TV. Verizon plans to launch with LTE technology in 2010 and Sprint-Nextel as part of Clearwire with WiMAX in 2009.
Typical Scenario
John is on the move wearing a video eye wear and carrying a Bluetooth linked stylish pen. His user session is running on an Intel or AMD powered server farm in a remote data center. Currently the display is redirected to his eye wear. The video connectivity is supported by Verizon’s 4G network. His directory view is organized as a file cabinet. He opens a file and edits it with his pen, picks and drops in rich content and saves a draft as he exits the train. Once in office his session is now displayed on his large screen monitors where he continues his editing. Connectivity is now provided by his high speed LAN circuit.
Summary
A high rich and high reach computing experience can be supported by a 4G network, video eyewear display, a pen for interactivity, Intel or AMD powered server farms and ARM powered eyewear and pen running supporting applications suite.
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
What Killer Innovation will make flying fun again?
Summary: A 1:1 customized experience in every class specified by and designed for the flyer will make flying fun again. All classes including the economy class will provide core flight experience requirements including a friendly staff, fine dining, wide selection of entertainment, efficient and quick check-in, fast network connectivity and telecommunications among others.
Recommendations:
Create a super premium class where the flyer can specify their own experience prior to boarding the flight. Experiences could focus on leisure activities of the flyer’s choice. Examples could be Bonsai care, playing a musical instrument, painting, reading a fine book, watching any movie / videos and listening to any music, massages, pottery among others. The premium experience will also include live events ranging from fine cuisine cooked by a world class chef in person, concerts by leading bands, and talks by world renowned speakers among others. The core customer value proposition is a set of activities they would rather be doing if not flying.
For the first class and business class a virtual experience which places the flyer in the experience of their choice for e.g. a gondola ride in Venice, climbing Mount Everest, skiing in the Rockies, driving for the Ferrari F1 team among others.
Singapore Airlines, Qatar Airways, Asiana Airlines, Cathay Pacific, Emirates, Virgin America are the highest ranked airlines exceeding customer expectations on the core flight experience requirements.
What do you consider contributes to a fun flying experience?
Recommendations:
Create a super premium class where the flyer can specify their own experience prior to boarding the flight. Experiences could focus on leisure activities of the flyer’s choice. Examples could be Bonsai care, playing a musical instrument, painting, reading a fine book, watching any movie / videos and listening to any music, massages, pottery among others. The premium experience will also include live events ranging from fine cuisine cooked by a world class chef in person, concerts by leading bands, and talks by world renowned speakers among others. The core customer value proposition is a set of activities they would rather be doing if not flying.
For the first class and business class a virtual experience which places the flyer in the experience of their choice for e.g. a gondola ride in Venice, climbing Mount Everest, skiing in the Rockies, driving for the Ferrari F1 team among others.
Singapore Airlines, Qatar Airways, Asiana Airlines, Cathay Pacific, Emirates, Virgin America are the highest ranked airlines exceeding customer expectations on the core flight experience requirements.
What do you consider contributes to a fun flying experience?
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